2016 US Presidential Election - Overview
In this 2016 US Presidential election special:
How the US voting system works (in a nutshell)
Key battleground states
Pre-polling figures
HOW THE US VOTING SYSTEM WORKS (IN A NUTSHELL)
Tomorrow, some 20 months after Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy and 17 months after Donald Trump announced his, Americans will finally head to the polls to elect the 45th President of the United States.
In the USA, Presidents are not elected based on the number of public votes they receive. Rather, they are elected on the basis of the Electoral College system. In order to be elected, a candidate must win at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College available across the 50 states (plus Washington DC). A list of the number of Electoral College votes each state has can be found here.
In simple terms, this system sees members of the public in each state voting to determine which party they support. In all but two states, Electorate College voters are then required by law to vote for the candidate of the party that received the most votes in their state. So, for example, if a majority of Floridians vote for the Democrats, then all of the state’s Electoral College voters are required by law to give their vote to Clinton.
It is these votes, as opposed to the direct votes of the general public that will see either Clinton or Trump become President.
In the event that neither Clinton nor Trump win the necessary 270 votes, here’s what would happen.
KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES
In many of the largest states, the Electoral College outcome is just about a foregone conclusion. For example, Texas has 38 votes but almost always votes Republican.
Candidates therefore tend to spend a lot of their time targeting ‘purple’ states (those holding quite a lot of votes which tend to swing between parties).
Depending on who you ask, there are anywhere between eight and fifteen purple states. Of these, no President since 1960 has been elected without winning at least two of the following:
Florida (29 Electoral College votes)
Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes)
Ohio (18 Electoral College votes)
North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes)
Arizona (11 Electoral College votes)
Florida regularly swings between the two major parties.
As of last Friday, Republicans led the Democrats in early votes by about 13,545 votes. However, at this point in 2008, Republicans had a 44,000-vote advantage yet went on to lose the state.
In terms of demographical geography, Florida tends to vote strongly Republican in the north and strongly Democrat in the south. It is in the middle, around Orlando, that votes are won or lost.
Florida was the decisive state in the 2000 election. Out of the 5.8 million votes it cast, just 500 more people voted Republican than Democrat. This was enough to give George W Bush all 29 of the state’s Electoral College votes and, ultimately, the Presidency.
Pennsylvania is crucial for Clinton. President Obama won the Electoral College by a wide margin in 2008 and 2012, largely because he was able to take the 20 votes in Pennsylvania.
In October, Clinton was leading in Pennsylvania by 8.7 points. However, as of last Friday that lead was cut to 3 points.
Clinton is expected to poll well in Pennsylvania’s big cities, including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which have seen a significant influx of Puerto Ricans in recent years.
The bellwether state of Ohio has voted for the party that goes on to win the Presidency at every election since 1964.
Demographically, the state is overwhelmingly white, with less than 17 per cent of voters being from some other background.
Polling data from last Friday indicated Ohio is seemingly in favour of Trump by a margin of between 2.5 and 5 points. However, earlier polling strongly indicated Clinton would win in the state.
In 2008, President Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina since 1976. However, in 2012 North Carolina voted Republican. President Obama has therefore spent a lot of time this campaign in North Carolina in an effort to win the state back again.
A combination of demographic changes and Trump’s lack of popularity amongst traditional Republican voters has led some commentators to call the historically Republican North Carolina as being within reach for Clinton.
Arizona has traditionally voted Republican, however Clinton has been performing better than expected in pre-polling averages; as of last Friday, Trump only led by a margin of 3 points.
Some commentators have suggested that the state’s rapidly growing Latino population could have a significant outcome on Arizona’s voting tendencies in the future.
PRE-POLLING FIGURES
Based on pre-polling, Clinton is leading in almost enough states to deliver the 270 Electoral College votes required to win. Of course, this could change.
18.6 million voters across 37 states have pre-polled so far. Pre-polling data does not show the result of the vote, however it does reveal the registered party of the voter.
In battleground states, registered Democrats have cast more votes in Florida, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Nevada, while registered Republicans have cast more votes in Ohio and Iowa.
Although the US public goes to the polls tomorrow, the Electoral College will not cast its votes until 19 December, the first Monday after the second Wednesday of the month. The results of their ballot will then be revealed on 6 January 2017, when they are counted by Congress. Whichever candidate is victorious will then be inaugurated on 20 January as President of the United States.
Further Information
For further information or analysis, please contact Cameron Mason from PremierState on (02) 9223 0311 or via email.