17 March | NSW State Election: One Week to Go
Voting will open tomorrow for the 2023 NSW State Election with the commencement of pre-poll voting at sites across the state.
Although most pundits are tipping a victory for the Labor Party, the result of the election remains on a knife edge, and with one week to go before election day there is still everything to play for.
The situation is not dissimilar to the scenario faced by the government in the lead up to the 2019 election, with most polls showing a state-wide swing away from the Coalition towards the Labor Party. A noticeable trend has also been developing in recent polls, with both major parties struggling to get their primary vote out of the mid-30’s, and a rise in support for minor parties and independent candidates.
It is therefore highly likely that the regional nature of the swing and preference flows (or lack thereof) from the minor parties and independents will decide the outcome of this election. Several regional trends are also emerging, with the government facing separate and distinct threats in each of them.
The rise of the ‘teal’ candidates at the federal election should serve as a cautionary tale to the Coalition, but the spending and donations caps at a state level could limit the impact they are able to make on the election. Campaign expenditure for independents is limited to $198,700 in NSW state elections, compared with than the more than $2 million spent on some seats at the federal election.
The optional preferential voting system used in NSW also does not favour these sorts of independents, with voters not required to number every box on the ballot paper in order of preference. This usually sees an ‘exhaustion’ of some votes that do not transfer through (in this case from Labor and Greens voters) to independent candidates in the way that they did during the federal election.
An increase in the popularity of One Nation is also being picked up in recent polling. The party is running candidates in twice as many seats as the 2019 election, and are registering a primary vote of around 7% (up from 1.1% at the last election). One Nation’s decision to not ‘preference’ any of the major parties could have an impact on some of the key seats in outer-suburban Sydney and regional NSW.
The retirement of a number of MPs could also hurt the Coalition, who lose the advantages of incumbency in those seats. Having a profile within the local community and a record of delivery to stand on is usually valued by voters when making a decision at the ballot box.
Labor requires victory in 10 seats (including Heathcote, which is notionally a Labor seat after the redrawing of seat boundaries but is currently held by Liberal Lee Evans) to form majority government, but could form minority government by winning as few as four seats from the Coalition.
Here are the battlegrounds and key seats that are most likely to decide who forms the next government in NSW.
It is in the seats in west and southwest Sydney that the Labor Party has been focussing most of their efforts and resources over the last few weeks. There are enough winnable seats in these areas to deliver government to Labor. Common themes of local concerns about population growth and overdevelopment, cost of living issues (such as toll roads, energy prices, and inflation), and investment in local infrastructure are repeated throughout most of these seats.
Parramatta (6.5% - Liberal)
The retirement of Liberal MP Geoff Lee and demographic shifts within the seat will make this one of the key seats to watch on election night. Labor have traditionally held the seat held by the Coalition since 2011. Published polling currently has Labor ahead in the seat, but the race appears to be tightening.
Riverstone (6.2% - Liberal)
Incumbent Kevin Connolly is standing down at this election from the seat he took off the Labor Party in 2011. The seat had been held by Labor until that point since its inception in the 1980’s, and Labor performed very strongly in this area during the most recent federal election.
Holsworthy (6.0% - Liberal)
Another seat where the incumbent MP is not returning at this election. The seat covers areas of the Shire which traditionally are very strong for the Liberal Party, but also includes areas around Liverpool which are equally strong for Labor.
Winston Hills (5.7% - Liberal)
Keep an eye on the northwest of the seat (around Glenwood) which swung heavily to Labor during the federal election.
Penrith (0.6% - Liberal)
The traditional Labor heartland was won by Stuart Ayres in a 2010 by-election who has held the seat since then. Despite the small margin it could remain in Coalition hands after the area ignored the national trend away from the Liberal Party in the federal election and the party increased their support.
East Hills (0.1% - Liberal)
Similar to Penrith in that the area bucked the trend away from the Coalition in the federal election and delivered a strong result for the Coalition. Despite the small margin, the Coalition are still confident that they can retain the seat.
Leppington (1.5% - new seat, nominally Labor)
The newly created seat of Leppington is located just to the north of Campbelltown, in Sydney’s southwest fringe. Although a notionally Labor seat based on the results of the 2019 election, the Liberal Party has selected the Mayor of Camden as its candidate, so the contest is predicted to be very tight.
Kiama (12.0% - Independent)
Incumbent Gareth Ward is contesting the election as an independent against candidates from the Liberal and Labor parties in what is likely to be a three-cornered contest. He remains the favourite to retain the seat.
South Coast (10.6% - Liberal)
The potential impact of the retirement of long-serving Liberal MP, Shelley Hancock has caused the Labor Party to target the seat. Labor currently holds the federal seat of Gilmore which covers the same geographical area as Kiama and South Coast.
Goulburn (3.1% - Liberal)
The southern highlands seat has not been held by Labor since 1965, but the seat has become more marginal over the last decade.
Heathcote (-1.7% - Liberal)
An unfavourable redistribution for the Coalition saw the boundaries of the seat shift from the Sutherland Shire further towards the northern suburbs of Wollongong.
The rise of the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers (SFF) Party at the 2016 Orange by-election was replicated in the 2019 general election, as the party won an additional two seats in the parliament. The National Party have a lot of sitting MPs retiring at this election, but there does not appear to be too much concern that any of those seats will be lost to Labor at this election.
Murray (2.8% - Independent)
Won by the SFF at the 2019 election, the National Party will be looking to win the seat back from Helen Dalton who will be contesting as an independent this time. The seat is widely considered the most likely to return to the Coalition if they are to make any gains during this election.
Barwon (6.6% - Independent)
Another seat won by the SFF in 2019 after a surge in popularity for the party in regional NSW. Roy Butler will also be standing as an independent after leaving the SFF since his election.
Upper Hunter (0.5% - National)
The Labor Party are seeking to win the seat of Upper Hunter for the first time in history. The National Party retained the seat in a by-election in 2021, but an unfavourable redistribution sees the seat become the most marginal seat held by the Nationals.
Monaro (5.2% - National)
After the withdrawal of high-profile Labor candidate Terry Campese, there appears to be less concern about the Nationals losing this seat. Former Member Steve Whan, who held the seat between 2003-2011, will now contest the seat for the Labor Party.
While Labor is not a threat to government-held seats in the traditional heartland of the Coalition, the rise of ‘teal’ candidates in these seats will add a layer of complexity as the result of the election is being determined. Climate and environment policy tends to be higher on the priority list of voters in these seats.
Willoughby (3.3% - Liberal)
The seat of former Premier Gladys Berejiklian was retained by the Liberal Party at the by-election caused by her resignation, albeit at a significantly reduced margin. Incumbent MP Tim James will again be challenged by an independent, however that independent is not formally being backed by the “Climate 200” group.
North Shore (17.8% - Liberal)
Incumbent Felicity Wilson is being challenged by a Climate 200 independent, and the overlapping seat of North Sydney was lost by the Liberal Party at the federal election.
Wakehurst (21.9% - Liberal)
Local Mayor Michael Reagan will contest the seat of retiring Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. Published polling suggests the race will come down to the wire.
