26 May | Upper Hunter By-Election
OVERVIEW
The Coalition has defied all odds by retaining the seat of Upper Hunter following a historic win. This is the first time in more than a decade that a government has had a swing towards them in a by-election.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Michael Johnsen in late March, following a police investigation into sexual assault allegations dating back to 2019.
The Nationals win came down to a strong ground campaign led by The Nationals Leader John Barilaro which capitalised on the NSW Government’s world-class COVID response, and the popularity of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who made numerous trips to the region throughout the campaign—never has a Liberal leader featured so heavily on National Party campaign material.
Newly elected member Dave Layzell will be sworn in during the first sitting week in early June.
The current results for the Upper Hunter, as of 09:55 26/05/2021: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021/results
Dave Layzell, John Barilaro. Picture: https://www.facebook.com/DaveLayzellUpperHunter
So, who is Dave Layzell?
Layzell was born and raised in Port Stephens and Nelson Bay. He went to school in Armidale and then went on to study Building Construction Management at the University of NSW and has completed a Master of Business Administration at the University of Queensland.
Layzell currently lives in Clarence Town with his wife and four daughters and has had a long career in engineering. A strong message throughout his campaign has been:
“As a father of four, I want to give my kids the opportunity of a great future, and that means a great job.”
What does this mean for Labor?
This result is utterly disappointing for Labor, and has meant pressure is building on NSW Labor Leader Jodi McKay to resign, with MPs Chris Minns, Ryan Park, Michael Daley, and Paul Scully all touted as leadership contenders.
While media reports have suggested that McKay will be asked to stand down in the coming days, she is determined to remain Labor Leader.
Hanging on to the leadership will be even harder for McKay given the resignations of Walt Secord, the Shadow Treasurer, only weeks out from the NSW Budget and leadership contender Chris Minns. Both Secord and Minns cited the distribution of a dirt file on Mr Minns by Yasmin Catley's staff as one of the main reasons for their resignations. The distribution of this file has resulted in the sacking of an ALP staffer.
The two major challenges for McKay or any incoming Labor Leader will be uniting the parliamentary party behind them, and also how they will refine their message to resonate with working families.
Jodi McKay. Picture: https://www.facebook.com/JodiMcKayMP
Further Insights
Apart from Labor's woes, the Shooters saw their primary vote drop below that of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party – a devastating blow for a party who once thought they had a chance of winning the seat.
This is the same party that took Orange from the Nationals in the 2016 by-election, and Murray and Orange in the 2019 State election.
In the coming months, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers HQ strategists will have to go back to the drawing board and work out how they differentiate themselves from One Nation.