11 April | Election 2022 Showdown As Campaign Officially Begins
The starter’s gun has been fired and Australia is off to the polls on May 21 2022.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday visited Governor-General David Hurley to formally request the issuing of writs for a general election of all 151 lower house seats and half of the Senate.
The past three years have been unprecedented on multiple fronts as the nation grappled with the major health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with raging bushfires, multiple catastrophic floods and the rise of China’s influence in our region.
Cost of living pressures, national security, climate change and funding for health and aged care are high on the list of voter concerns heading into the election campaign.
The Coalition currently holds 76 seats in the lower house, compared to Labor’s 68, and Morrison has enjoyed three years of stable majority government after dipping into minority late in the previous term.
Most opinion polls have the Opposition ahead by as much as 55:45 on a two-party preferred (2PP) basis, but it is worth noting that these same polls falsely predicted a Labor victory three years ago.
Swings are never uniform, however, and the Coalition’s increasing stranglehold over regional Australia, particularly in Queensland and Western Australia, gives them a considerable advantage before suburban and inner-city seats are fought out.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is looking to frame the election around experience, saying you can’t trust an untried leader to steer us through uncertain times.
“Our economic recovery measures saved around 700,000 jobs (and) we have achieved the biggest Budget turnaround in 70 years with our plan delivering an extra $100 billion to the country’s bottom line,” Morrison said over the weekend.
“Our economic growth is one of the best in the developed world – faster and stronger than the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.
“On almost any measure – fatality rates, vaccine rates, economic growth, jobs growth, or debt levels – Australia’s recovery is leading the world.
“But I know our country continues to face very real challenges and many families are doing it tough. There is still a lot of uncertainty ahead.”
Morrison said the Government would:
Deliver more jobs and work towards an unemployment rate below four per cent
Deliver tax relief for workers and small businesses by halving the tax paid at the petrol pump for six months and putting more money in the pockets of 10 million Australians
Invest in roads, rail, water infrastructure and renewable energy technology as part of a $120 billion infrastructure investment pipeline
Invest in stronger defence, security and borders by locking in new partnerships such as AUKUS to build the best submarines in world, develop long range hypersonic missiles and triple the size of our cyber offensive and defensive forces
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, on the other hand, says it is time to put to rest a tired, old government that has churned through three prime ministers, continually botched the rollout of major programs and has simply run out of ideas.
“Labor will deliver a future where no one is held back and no one is left behind,” Albanese said.
“After nearly a decade in office, Scott Morrison still refuses to take responsibility, goes missing in action, blames others and can’t admit his mistakes.
“From the bushfires to the bungled vaccine rollout to not securing enough rapid tests, Morrison’s mistakes have held Australians back. We deserve so much better.”
The Labor Leader said he would:
Strengthen Medicare by making it easier to see the doctor
Create secure local jobs by investing in Fee-Free TAFE and more university places, and make your job more secure with better pay and conditions
Make child care cheaper so that it’s easier for working families to get ahead
Make more things here in Australia by working with business to invest in manufacturing and renewables to create more Australian jobs
A statement from Prime Minister Scott Morrison released on the day the election was called can be found here.
An opinion piece from Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese published on the day the election was called can be found here.
Support for the major parties has been declining for some time but while the Greens and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have enjoyed success over the past couple of decades, new entrants such as Climate 200 and Clive Palmer have cash to burn.
After entering the lower house himself for one term in 2013 alongside a handful of his party’s senators, Palmer undoubtedly influenced the election result in 2019 after spending tens of millions of dollars skewering Labor and his decision to put sitting members last on how-to-vote cards this time around may see some unexpected results on election night.
While seats in the regions are increasingly reliable for the Coalition, many traditionally safe, blue-ribbon seats in affluent areas of capital cities are under increasing threat from well-funded Independent candidates.
These light blue, or teal, candidates are running on a platform of better action on climate change, integrity in government and more women in parliament, and have some momentum following electoral success in the seats of Wentworth and Warringah.
Even if the Independents are not successful, these contests mean the Liberal Party has to divert precious resources to campaign in formerly safe seats and has to walk both sides of the street on progressive issues in much the same way as Labor does in battles with the Greens.
All of the current Independents will likely be returned, but the more interesting question is whether more will be elected and who they would support in a hung parliament.
Another significant factor making this election difficult to predict is the elevated level of importance of state and territory leaders during the pandemic, through Morrison’s creation of national cabinet and their control of state lockdowns and border restrictions.
This means that the lived experience over the past three years has been vastly different according to the state or territory in which you live - for example, life in Melbourne has been vastly different from that experienced by Western Australians since the onset of COVID.
The daily updates from premiers and chief health officers became part of the public routine during lockdown and most news stories, particularly on the eastern seaboard, were framed by numbers of cases domestically and internationally and the political response.
Governing has been difficult, while Opposition leaders have not often been part of the debate and while voters at state level initially rewarded governments for keeping them safe, the recent result in South Australia was the first time an incumbent had been voted out since the pandemic began.
As always, there are a number of marginal seats across the country. Some are perennially marginal and tend to change hands when there is a change of government. Others have retiring MPs or significant events such as fires or floods.
If the Coalition retains all of its seats, it will continue to hold majority government. Losing a small number of seats does not automatically mean that Scott Morrison won’t continue to be Prime Minister.
There will be key battleground seats right around the country with some of the hottest contests likely in Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Chisholm (Vic), Braddon (Tas) and Gilmore (NSW). Four of these are held by the Coalition, one by Labor.
The newly-created seat of Hawke in Melbourne’s outer north-west is almost certainly a Labor gain. A host of other seats are also in play and are listed at the bottom of this summary.
In our view, at the start of the campaign, the pathway to a majority victory for the Government is to hold Chisholm, Braddon, Boothby, Wentworth, Reid and North Sydney, plus win Macquarie and Shortland.
For Labor to win majority government, they must retain all of their seats in the Hunter and pick up two more from a long list including Lindsay, Robertson, Reid, Bass, Boothby, Longman and Page.
At this point in time, a hung parliament is a very real possibility. It seems reasonable to think Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt would support Labor, but the rest of the seats currently held by Independents are generally considered Coalition seats.
Bob Katter, Rebekah Sharkie, Helen Haines and Zali Steggall would be more likely to support the Coalition, particularly after the difficulties faced by Independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor after they backed Labor in 2010.
In summary, it is unclear at this stage who will form government.
VICTORIA
Chisholm (Lib)
Kooyong (Lib)
Goldstein (Lib)
Higgins (Lib)
La Trobe (Lib)
Deakin (Lib)
Casey (Retiring Lib MP)
Flinders (Retiring Lib MP)
Nicholls (Retiring Nat MP)
Corangamite (Lab)
Dunkley (Lab)
Note: Redistribution sees the creation of the new seat of Hawke. Highly likely Labor gain.
NSW
Reid (Lib)
Robertson (Lib)
Lindsay (Lib)
Wentworth (Lib)
North Sydney (Lib)
Farrer (Lib)
Page (Nat)
Gilmore (Lab)
Shortland (Lab)
Hunter (Retiring Labor MP)
Paterson (Lab)
Queensland
Longman (LNP)
Brisbane (LNP
Flynn (Retiring LNP MP)
Lilley (Lab)
Western Australia
Swan (Retiring Lib MP)
Pearce (Retiring Lib MP)
Hasluck (Lib)
Cowan (Lab)
Curtin (Lib)
South Australia
Boothby (Retiring Lib MP)
Sturt (Lib)
Mayo (Ind)
Tasmania
Braddon (Lib)
Bass (Lib)
Lyons (Lab)
