25 November | Victorian Election Preview

Victorians will have their final chance cast their votes in a fierce political landscape this Saturday. Quickly tightening polls indicate that incumbent Premier Daniel Andrews is still likely to lead Labor to victory, though burgeoning support for teal independents, the Greens and minor-party candidates may lead to a minority government outcome.

Both major parties have suffered controversies ahead of election day, including the referrals of both Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Daniel Andrews to the Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission with just a week and a half and three weeks remaining before the election, respectively.

However, this cycle has also seen the highest rate of early voting in Victorian history, with up to 50% of voters having already made either pre-poll or postal votes – including the Premier. This could impact the extent to which pre-election controversies weigh on the final polls, especially considering news of the IBAC’s investigation into Matthew Guy emerged days after pre-polling opened on November 14.

The election has been framed by Matthew Guy and the press as an informal referendum on the Premier following more than 260 days of COVID-19 lockdowns, the spectre of which has lingered over Labor’s campaign and heavily informed that of the Coalition.

Labor won a decisive 55 seats in the Legislative Assembly in 2018 out of 88 seats total; more than double the Coalition tally of 27 (Liberal [21]; National [6]) and about 10 more than the total needed for a lower-house majority.

Despite that result, Labor’s lead in the polls has narrowed over the last six months to one of the tightest two party-preferred margins since the pandemic was declared.

Labor’s re-election campaign for a third consecutive term has focused on the party’s major project deliveries and commitments. Its campaign promises include 100 community batteries around Victoria before the 2026 state election and a commitment to the Suburban Rail Loop.

The Coalition’s campaign has flagged tax-reduction and energy policy as major priorities, including a guarantee of 100% of Victorian-produced natural gas being reserved for Victorian consumption.

The Liberals will also largely preference the Greens above Labor, which combined with a surge of independent candidates could threaten Labor’s hold on some inner Melbourne seats.

Labor also continues to manage the fallout of major branch-stacking scandals which saw parliamentary stalwart and then-Minister for Disability, Ageing and Carers Luke Donnellan lose his cabinet position, while the Coalition has suffered accusations that some of its candidates split strongly from party positions on issues such as abortion, gay rights, climate targets and Indigenous affairs.

Amid these battlegrounds, an early-November Newspoll saw Labor leading the Coalition 54-46 and Daniel Andrews leading Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred premier 52-33. While there has been clear public dissatisfaction with the Andrews Government in recent months, the Opposition has struggled to make its case as a well-rounded alternative.

Labor has won eight of the last 11 Victorian elections, and a further victory would result in Daniel Andrews’ third consecutive term.

Independent and minor-party candidates are expected to impact the state’s balance of power in seats long held by the Liberal and Labor parties, and The Age’s Resolve Political Monitor from 21 November has the Coalition’s and Labor’s primary votes tied on a low 36%.

The once-safe Liberal seats of Kew, Caulfield, Mornington, Brighton, and Sandringham, and the once-safe Labor seat of Hawthorn, are in the sights of teal independent candidates, and the Greens are hoping for wins in Northcote, Albert Park, Richmond, Pascoe Vale, Footscray and Preston.

Aside from the lockdown legacies of 2020 and 2021, the election’s policy battlegrounds include cost-of-living pressures, infrastructure, and health funding.

COST OF LIVING

The Coalition has listed a $2-per-day cap on public transport fares and freezing energy supply charges in the first half of 2023 as cornerstone cost-of-living policies. Labor has cast doubt on the commitment’s feasibility, arguing it would cost the state budget an extra $2.1 billion.

Labor has promised to reinstate the State Electricity Commission (SEC) by enshrining it in the Victorian constitution – and in which the Government would hold a 51% share – invest $1 billion into delivering 4.5 gigawatts of renewable energy (with a 95% renewable energy target by 2035) and pay another standalone $250 Power Saving Bonus to Victorian households.

Meanwhile, the Coalition is looking to form a billion-dollar Victorian hydrogen strategy, make commitments on energy security in regional communities (including upgrading Western Victorian electricity infrastructure) and put $500 million towards temporary and targeted electricity bill relief.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Labor holds vast swathes of Melbourne’s outer northern and western suburbs. In focusing its campaign on project commitments, Labor is targeting growth areas where transport infrastructure has struggled to keep pace with residential development – and where the Liberal Party will hope to make key gains.

Accordingly, Labor has committed $650 million to improving train services in Melbourne’s west and made a commitment to the Suburban Rail Loop, which will likely cost $200 billion in construction and operating costs by 2084-85.

The Coalition has pledged to scrap the SRL and begin auditing major infrastructure projects, citing unacceptable budget blowouts, though it has committed to building a metropolitan rail service between Geelong and Melbourne.

Labor would also lease the Port of Melbourne for 99 years (but consider a 50-year option) if elected, though the Coalition would limit this to 30 years to push for an earlier decommissioning of the port.

HEALTH

Both parties have made big commitments to hospital construction and redevelopment. Each has committed to upgrades for Wonthaggi and Maroondah Hospitals and building a new West Gippsland hospital.

Labor has also named Austin, Dandenong, and Northern (Epping) Hospitals to be upgraded, and a renewed Monash Medical Centre. The party also announced $150 million in extra support for nurses and midwives.

The Coalition is placing significant weight on health commitments, aiming to deliver new or rebuilt hospitals in Melton, Mildura, Albury-Wodonga, Caulfield and the Alfred Hospital, and upgrades or redevelopments including to Sandringham, St Arnaud, Rosebud, Daylesford, Mansfield District, Maffra, Bairnsdale, Swan Hill and Bright Hospitals as well as a new Casey Hospital and Royal Children’s Hospital Werribee campuses. Some funding for these and other Coalition health commitments would be redirected from the Suburban Rail Loop.