17 January | #NSWPol 2021 in Review

As most of New South Wales returns to work after a well-deserved Christmas break, we thought it was an opportune moment to look back on the year that was in NSW Politics.

In a year dominated by the continuation of the COVID pandemic, we saw changes to the leadership of both major parties, had some significant and controversial legislation come before the NSW Parliament, and witnessed several other developments that could shape the future of our state.

The year began with the state dealing with the ‘Northern Beaches cluster’ that threatened the Government’s efforts to eliminate COVID in NSW. A targeted lockdown of the area managed to isolate the virus and keep infection rates down for the time being.

A significant development in one of the Government’s signature infrastructure projects saw tunnelling breakthrough to connect the M4-M5 and M8 Tunnels as part of the WestConnex project. Scheduled to be completed in 2023, the project is already saving commuters an average of 35 minutes on their journey from Western Sydney to the City.

WestConnex continues to be a symbol for some of the big issues in the build up to the next election, with debate focusing on the Government’s use of privatisation, the concept of toll-roads more generally, and the cost of living for people in Western Sydney.

Parliament resumed for the year in February and began with the news that the President of the Legislative Council, John Ajaka would be leaving politics in March.

After several deadlocked votes to attempt to elect a new President following his resignation, the Legislative Council remained unable to sit throughout April and into May. A legal argument over the interpretation of the Standing Orders of the house saw the Government claim that Natasha Maclaren-Jones had been elected as President in a prior ballot, and she took the chair amid outcry from the opposition and crossbench. A motion from the opposition was successful in removing her shortly after, and Liberal turncoat Matthew Mason-Cox was elected President with the support of the Labor Party and crossbench.

The NSW Government continued to roll-back restrictions after 38 days of no locally acquired cases of COVID. The Government’s “Dine and Discover” voucher trial began, and dancing at weddings and stand-up drinking brought back a sense of normality, after they had been prohibited for most of the previous year.

In a tumultuous month for the NSW Government, former Minister John Sidoti formally resigned from his Ministerial position and from the Liberal Party following confirmation that he would appear before a public hearing of the Independent Commission Against Corruption.

At the end of the month, Michael Johnsen announced that he would resign from Parliament after the Labor Party used parliamentary privilege to air allegations of sexual assault against him (the DPP has subsequently found there was insufficient evidence to proceed with charges). His resignation reduced the Government’s majority in the NSW Legislative Assembly to one vote.

April saw the announcement by long-serving Member of the Legislative Council Fred Nile of his intention to retire from NSW Politics at the end of the year. Reverend Nile was first elected to the Upper House in 1981 and, except for a period in 2004 when he resigned to run for the Australian Senate, has been a member ever since. Since being elected in 2011, the NSW Government has regularly relied on Reverend Nile and his Christian Democratic Party to pass legislation through the Parliament.

In May, NSW politics was dominated by the Upper Hunter by-election caused by the resignation of Michael Johnsen. The seat had been held by the National and Country Parties since 1932 and the Labor party was seeking to win the seat for the first time since 1910.

A Melbourne Cup field of 13 candidates contested the ballot, with the addition of One Nation (who didn’t field a candidate in the seat for the 2019 State Election) making the result a difficult one to predict. Despite a nearly 3% swing against the National Party on first preferences, David Layzell comfortably retained the seat for the Nationals with 55.8% of the 2PP Vote after preferences were distributed. Read our summary of the Upper Hunter by-election here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/upperhunterby-election

The aftermath of the Upper Hunter result saw questions being asked about the effectiveness of the Opposition Leader Jodi McKay, resulting in her stepping down as Opposition Leader a week later.

Initially, two candidates nominated for the leadership: former leader Michael Daley and former assistant secretary of NSW Labor and Member for Kogarah, Chris Minns. After it became obvious which candidate enjoyed the support of the majority of the Labor Caucus, Mr Daley pulled out of the contest allowing Minns to be elected unopposed on 4 June. 

The political scene in June is usually dominated by the handing down of the NSW Budget. The 2020 budget had been delayed until November due to COVID, and predicted a dire outlook for 2021, so all eyes were on then Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, to see how the state would emerge from the pandemic.

In some much-welcome news, Perrottet announced that the unemployment rate had dropped from 7.1% at the height of the pandemic to 5.0%. It was also announced that the 270,000 jobs that had been lost during that time had been recovered, as well as another 36,000 jobs created on top of the pre-pandemic levels. The good news also extended to the deficit projection which had been halved from the projected $16 billion to $7.9 billion.

Large-scale investments in infrastructure also continued with $108.5 billion in funding announced over the forward estimates (the next 4 years). This included landmark investments in schools, hospitals, and huge infrastructure projects such as the new Bradfield City Centre, M6 Extension, Greater Western Highway, and Sydney Metro West.

For more info on the NSW Budget: https://www.budget.nsw.gov.au/ and read our summary here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/2021-22nswbudgetsummary

July was dominated by the emergence of the Delta Variant in NSW, which forced the Government to reconsider their elimination strategy for the virus. As case numbers escalated rapidly, the focus shifted to a mass-vaccination approach.

After initially announcing a two-week lockdown at the end of June, the Premier and Health Minister continued to extend stay at home orders throughout July. It wouldn’t be until October that life would start to return to normal for people across NSW.

Every 8 years the NSW Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel undertakes a process to re-evaluate the boundaries of every electorate in the NSW Parliament. The process takes into consideration shifts in population distribution and tries to align electorate boundaries to geographical features, media markets, and communities of interest.

In August the Panel handed down their final report, which determined the electoral boundaries for the next state election. As a result of the changes, the Labor-held seat of Lakemba was abolished and Leppington, a new marginal seat in south-west Sydney, was created. The changes also made the Liberal held seat of Heathcote into a notionally marginal Labor seat.

Other changes saw the Coalition held seats of Penrith, Oatley, Parramatta, and Upper Hunter have their margins reduced. Labor leader Chris Minns also had his seat of Kogarah trimmed to a margin of just 0.1% based on the results of the 2019 election.

During August the Budget Estimates process also took place in a much-changed format due to the public health orders. Hearings were all held online, and Ministers did not participate in the hearings (with the exception of the health minister). Further hearings were organised for Ministers to participate in during October and November and our summary can be found here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/nsw-budget-estimates-21.

The NSW Government’s commitment to asset-recycling continued in September, with the remaining 49% of WestConnex sold for $11.1billion. It was announced that $5 billion of the sale would go to the newly announced COVID recovery fund, targeted at the areas of Western Sydney that were hit hardest by the pandemic.

The WestInvest Fund will allocate $3 billion for future projects to develop parks and green space, enhance local sporting grounds and community infrastructure, modernising local schools, arts, and cultural facilities, revitalising high-streets, and clearing local traffic. The remaining $2 billion will be reserved for high priority projects to be developed in consultation with local communities.

On 1 October the Independent Commission Against Corruption announced that it would conduct a further public inquiry as part of Operation Keppel, the investigation into the dealings of Daryl Maguire, the former Member for Wagga Wagga. At this time, it also announced that it would be investigating whether Premier Gladys Berejiklian had breached public trust when she awarded grants to community organisations in his electorate.

Ms Berejiklian announced her decision to resign as Premier of NSW shortly after the announcement.

The Premier’s decision to resign triggered a flurry of senior cabinet resignations in the days after, including the Deputy Premier John Barilaro, and Transport Minister Andrew Constance.

After a respectful leadership contest, Dominic Perrottet defeated Rob Stokes 39 votes to 5 in a ballot for the leadership of the NSW Liberal Party and was sworn-in as the 46th Premier of NSW on 5 October. Stuart Ayres was elected unopposed as the Deputy Leader of the NSW Liberals and Matt Kean was appointed to succeed Perrottet as Treasurer. Read our summary here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/nsw-leadership-refresh.

After winning a leadership contest 15-3 over Melinda Pavey, Paul Toole became the state’s new Deputy Premier on 6 October, with Bronnie Taylor elected as the Deputy Leader of the National Party. Read our summary here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/new-nationals-leader.

October also saw the state reach some important targets on the COVID ‘reopening roadmap’, with the 70% double-vax target being reached on 11 October and the 80% target only a week later, much earlier than previously predicted. These milestones provided some much welcome relief to business as restrictions on trading were relaxed across the state.

The new Premier also signalled his willingness to be less risk-averse than his predecessor by altering the roadmap to bring forward the loosening of restrictions.

In Parliament, a new reform was passed regarding the taxation of electric vehicles. To solve the problem of projected reductions in fuel-excise as the uptake of electric vehicles increases, the Government sought to introduce road charge based on km’s driven. The changes also saw stamp duty on electric vehicles abolished.

November is usually the last month that the NSW Parliament sits for the year. To make up for the time lost earlier in the year due to COVID, the NSW Parliament resumed for an intense three-week period of Tuesday-Friday sittings.

The Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill passed the lower house by 52 votes to 32 after more than 150 amendments were debated. The Bill will now be sent to an upper house committee which will hold hearings and consider public submissions. It will then come before the Legislative Council when Parliament resumes in 2022, where it is anticipated that the vote will be very close. A similar bill was defeated in the Upper House in 2018 by just one vote.

A significant reform to single use plastics also passed through both houses, with the prohibition of the sale of commonly used items such as plastic straws, cutlery and expanded foam food containers. The Bill also provided the Government with the power to add additional items to the list of prohibited items by regulation.

The NSW Parliament also passed the biggest reform to sexual consent laws in recent memory, requiring people to provide affirmative consent to any sexual activity.

The Crimes Legislation Amendment (Loss of Foetus) Bill also passed through both houses, creating new criminal offences relating to the loss of a foetus of a pregnant woman. The issue originally rose to prominence in 2009 when Brodie Donegan, who was 32 weeks pregnant, lost her unborn child after being hit by a drunk driver. The subject of recognising the loss of an unborn child has been a politically sensitive one and similar laws had failed to pass on several occasions over the previous decade.

In the last week of November, the Premier also announced his intention to complete a cabinet reshuffle before the end of the year. There had been speculation as to the timing of the reshuffle, but the Premier confirmed his intent in an interview with the Daily Telegraph. He also confirmed that Health Minister, Brad Hazzard would be remaining in his portfolio.

With no parliamentary sittings, December is usually a quieter month on the NSW political calendar. However, this year saw the twice-postponed local government elections held on 4 December and the NSW Cabinet reshuffle take place on 19 December.

The first cabinet reshuffle of the Perrottet/Toole Government was more substantial than many had expected, with a generational changing of the guard seeing nine first-time ministers added to the ministry. Our more detailed review of the changes can be found here: https://premiernational.com.au/pn-brief/nsw-cabinet-reshuffle.

The local government elections saw mixed results around the state for the major parties. The status-quo was maintained in a lot of councils, with small gains in some areas being offset with small losses in others.

In some of the notable results from around the state:

• Clover Moore won another resounding victory as she was re-elected as Mayor of the City of Sydney.

• Parramatta has a Labor mayor for the first time since 2008, after the Liberal Party chose not to endorse candidates for the council.

• The City of Ryde also has a new mayor after Liberal Jordan Lane took the position from the Labor incumbent.

• Labor had a strong result on Inner West Council, picking up an additional 3 councillors to assume a majority.

• In another gain for the Liberal Party, The City of Liverpool returned former Mayor Ned Mannoun to the top job.

• It was also a good night for the Liberal Party in the City of Penrith as the Labor Party lost two councillors and the Liberals picked up one.

• Sutherland Shire Council also delivered a strong result for the Liberals as they gained a Councillor and the Labor Party lost two, shifting the balance of power to a Liberal majority.

As we look forward to events on the horizon for this year, much of the next month will be dominated by the upcoming by-elections in the seats of Willoughby, Monaro, Bega, and Strathfield, which are expected to be held in February.

These by-elections will be an early test of the new Perrottet/Toole government and could potentially tip the Government’s numbers into a minority in the NSW Legislative Assembly. We will provide a more detailed analysis of these contests in coming weeks.

Things will also start to heat-up as the campaign begins ahead of the next State Election on 25 March 2023.